India’s equity markets staged a sharp recovery in April 2026, supported by resilient domestic inflows, improving earnings expectations and hopes of easing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, according to Tata Mutual Fund’s latest “Equity View” report for May 2026.
The Nifty 50 climbed 7.46% during April to close at 23,997, while the Sensex gained 6.9%, reversing part of the correction seen earlier this year. The report said bullish sentiment returned as volatility eased and investors priced in a potential stabilization in crude oil prices.
Broader markets outperformed benchmark indices during the month. The Nifty Midcap 150 surged 13.24% in April, while the Nifty Smallcap 250 jumped 17.1%, reflecting renewed risk appetite among investors.
However, the report cautioned that large-cap stocks currently offer better risk-reward opportunities than mid- and small-caps due to more reasonable valuations and stronger earnings visibility.
Domestic Investors Continue to Anchor Markets
Domestic institutional investors (DIIs) remained a major support for Indian equities even as foreign institutional investors (FIIs) continued to pull money out of the market.
FIIs were net sellers to the tune of $5.9 billion in April 2026 amid concerns over rising crude prices, geopolitical tensions and weakness in the rupee. In contrast, DIIs recorded inflows of $5.4 billion during the month, taking total domestic inflows in calendar year 2026 to $32.6 billion.
The report highlighted the growing influence of domestic mutual funds in Indian equities. Mutual funds now own 11.3% of India’s total market capitalization, up sharply from 4.3% a decade ago. Assets under management have climbed to nearly $800 billion, driven largely by strong retail participation and systematic investment plans (SIPs).
Banking, Manufacturing and Pharma Seen as Key Growth Drivers
Tata Mutual Fund expects corporate earnings growth to recover in FY27 after downgrades in FY25 and FY26. The report identified banking, manufacturing, capital goods and pharmaceuticals as sectors likely to benefit from the next phase of growth.
Banks are projected to deliver 15-20% growth in FY27, supported by improving credit demand, benign asset quality trends and recovery in net interest margins after expected bottoming out in FY26.
Credit growth has already shown signs of acceleration. Bank credit expanded to 17.1% in March 2026 as rising government bond yields made bank borrowing cheaper than bond issuances for corporates. The report expects retail lending, infrastructure financing and MSME borrowing to remain key growth drivers going forward.
Meanwhile, capital goods and utilities continued to gain weight in mutual fund portfolios. Allocation to capital goods rose to a 17-month high of 7.8% in April, while utilities climbed to a 19-month high of 3.9%. Technology sector allocation, however, dropped to an eight-year low.
Crude Oil and Geopolitics Remain Key Risks
Despite optimism around domestic growth, the report flagged crude oil prices and global geopolitical developments as the biggest near-term risks for Indian markets.
Brent crude averaged $121.63 per barrel in April 2026 following supply disruptions and infrastructure damage in the Middle East. Global crude supply reportedly fell to 97 million barrels per day in March from 107 million barrels per day in February due to regional conflict.
The report warned that India remains vulnerable to higher oil prices because of its dependence on imports, adding that rising crude and geopolitical uncertainty also contributed to rupee weakness. The Indian currency averaged 93.31 against the U.S. dollar in April and remained among the weakest-performing Asian currencies over the past year.
GDP Outlook Remains Strong
India’s macroeconomic outlook remains resilient despite global uncertainty, the report said. The Reserve Bank of India expects GDP growth of 7.4% in FY26 and 6.9% in FY27, supported by domestic demand, agricultural recovery, construction activity and resilient services growth.
Inflation also remained relatively contained, with consumer price inflation at 3.4% in April 2026, while the RBI kept the repo rate unchanged at 5.25% during its latest monetary policy meeting.
India’s foreign exchange reserves rose to $690.69 billion in April, providing a strong external buffer amid currency volatility and global uncertainty.
Valuations Turn More Reasonable
The report said Indian equities are now trading at more reasonable valuations after recent corrections. The Nifty 50’s one-year forward price-to-earnings multiple stood at around 19.1x, below its 10-year average of approximately 21x.
While India still trades at a premium to other emerging markets, that premium has narrowed considerably. The Nifty 50’s valuation premium over the MSCI Emerging Markets index declined to 60.2% by the end of April 2026 from 77% in March 2025.
The report concluded that a balanced portfolio approach with greater emphasis on large-cap stocks, selective exposure to mid- and small-caps, and a focus on earnings upgrades could help investors navigate a range-bound but improving market environment.
